Who is responsible for South Sudan’s failure as a Nation?

For years, Christian groups lobbied in vain to get President Bill Clinton to appoint a special envoy to Sudan to help end the civil war. But Bush's election saw the swift appointment of John Danforth, a moderate Episcopal priest and former senator, at a Rose Garden ceremony attended by a host of evangelicals.

 (Boston Globe, By Farah Stockman - October 14, 2004)

When I started to think about this article, a three part series, I became sick – inside myself – not of physical kind of sickness with my body shutting down or it being attacked by some unknown pathogen – but a metaphysical sickness brought on by an attempt for weeks to write about one of the most successful Presidents in our history, a fellow African-American whose presidency has redefined leadership, strategy and unity, a man gifted with an intelligence not seen for decades.

Why am I troubled about writing about a man with such presidential achievements as Obamacare, Revitalizing the US Auto Industry, Cuba normalization, the Iran Nuclear Deal…

Well, as an American I am blessed to have been a son/beneficiary of the Greatness of my nation and the great state of New York – was able to have served in its military, travelled to 25 countries; given scholarships, grants to obtain education which in the end after a decade – I achieved a Bachelors, two master’s degrees and a fellowship in public policy and international affairs from the prestigious Woodrow Wilson Foundation, attending Hobart College, Harvard University and the University of Texas at Austin.

From here I served my second home and state Texas in its government as a policy specialist for over half a decade, under the Bullock, Bush administrations in technology, oil, economic development and international affairs.

Such experience shaped a conscientious, patriotic and studied man of varied interests. Then in 2002, marriage to a South Sudanese of diplomatic/military family changed my life forever – I discovered the “existence” of the Africa continent and in particular South Sudan in 2002.

Over time, I learned much on its cultures, people, customs and personalities which inform me greatly in my interactions and analysis. Now, a decade later after assignments as an adviser, analyst and figure operating within the ruling SPLM political party, experiencing its war firsthand, my view on this African nation is deeply and sharply informed.

And if that is not enough I returned from Juba, having spent the past few months in South Sudan. First dodging Juba’s assassins/soldiers then seeking refuge after the conflict started on 10 July, in the UN camps living among the people in horrid conditions as an IDP refugee.

With such knowledge and experience, I am in a unique position to understand South Sudan. For over time, before its birth I have watched, listened to leaders from the West, within Sudan, South Sudan and my [in-law] family – plan, implement and execute efforts to inform, create, operate and eventually destroy this nation I love called South Sudan.

The Truth for All

 Instrumental in getting recognition for the people, garnering global support, providing diplomatic, military, developmental and humanitarian assistance was the United States of America – without which many, including South Sudanese, acknowledge this nation would not exist.

People such as President George W. Bush, Franklin Graham, General Colin Powell and Senator John Danforth were key to getting South Sudan on the US foreign policy agenda and the world’s as well.

See, "Christian lobbying finds success Evangelicals help to steer Bush efforts." link 

Franklin Graham publicize the Sudan issue through his organization, Samaritan's Purse, which flew influential US officials such as US Senator Bill Frist, the Tennessee Republican, to Sudan's deepest corners. Working with the Democratic Party, Senators Frist, Brownback, and others like the Black Caucus in the US House of Representative helped push legislation threatening sanctions against both North and South Sudan if they failed to reach a peace agreement, which occurred in 2005. See too, “The Evangelical Roots of US Africa Policy”, Asteris Huliaras, December 2008.

It is well known that President Bush had a great relationship with the South Sudanese leader, who could get a meeting anytime with him. During President Bush’s second term, President Kiir visited four times to the Oval Office and they would speak often on the phone according to Cameron Hudson of the National Security Council. See, “Can the U.S. Forge a Relationship with South Sudan?” Newsweek (2014).

It is clear from the highest levels of the US government, the Presidency; to the ground (local organizations and churches) normal citizens were active, even instrumental in helping to birth the sovereign nation of South Sudan.

Fast forward to today…

After billions in oil revenue, foreign assistance since 2000s, we are here:

Total economic and military assistance to South Sudan was $2.2 billion as of 2014 ($2.1 billion in economic and $154 military assistance)

Here is a snapshot of financial support in FY 2012, a total of $444 million:

Economic

Department of Defense Security Assistance: $536,518

Economic Support Fund/Security Support Assistance: $12.6 million

Global Health and Child Survival: $9.08 million

Migration and Refugee Assistance: $73 million

Narcotics Control: $21 million

Other State Assistance: $192,284

Other USAID Assistance: $106 million

Title II: $173 million

Military

Military Assistance, Total: $48.8 million

Source: Greenbook - here

With such extensive and unprecedented political, spiritual and military support, one would expect hard work and dedication from a government and its official, even success given not only was the US providing nearly a billion in assistance monthly (others like the EU as well provided funding) the young nation was generating between $1 to $3 billion a year in oil revenue.

Princeton Lyman, the former Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan (2011-2013) noted that after its independence on July 10, 2011, Juba felt like it didn’t “have to take orders from anybody.” (Newsweek, Can the U.S. Forge a Relationship with South Sudan?, 2014)

No new nation in modern times enjoyed such abundant financial resources – yet this golden opportunity would not be taken advantage of and instead the new nation accelerated from a promising son of democracy to a “regime” now noted for murder, rape as a weapon of war, torture and other atrocities including cases of forced cannibalism, see, AU Commission of Inquiry Final Report, October 2015, link

Five years after its independence, South Sudan is said to have the world’s highest rate of inflation, its currency has lost more than 90 percent of its value and the government’s budget deficit for 2016/2017 is projected to be more than US$ 1.1 billion.

SIGNS OF TROUBLE?

But for those looking – the signs were there. I recall my early visit to Juba in 2006, while walking around the Parliament building area or ‘Ministry row’, where all the government ministries are located one noticed people moving with luggage everywhere – there was cash inside, back then all transactions had to be done in dollars due to poor accounting system established despite US experts, consultants assigned to help the fledgling nation - so all officials moved with bags full of dollars!

• All ministries employed mostly those persons from that minister’s tribe, resulting in whole complexes of one ethnic group. If the Commerce Minister was a Dinka, all or most of the employees at that ministry complex were of the Dinka tribe!

• Since Independence the country slowly begun to overspent on military and security and the traditional African system of patronage. Initially the country was spending half of its budget on the military and nearly 80% of its revenue on salaries (trying to keep the 64 tribes happy under the Kiir ‘Big Tent’ strategy of accommodation).

• At the first Obama/Kiir meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York on 21 September 2011, it is said the moment the bond between the two nations broke. Despite advice from others to not mislead President Obama about the on-the-ground situation with Sudan (amassing troop on the border near the Sudan oil fields), President Kiir is said to have lied to President Obama saying he had no troops there about to enter the Heglig oilfields (which it did in March 2012).

• By 2014, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated the government spent more than 60 percent of its overall net revenues on the military, and steadily increased its spending on arms from $945 million dollars in 2013 to $1.3 billion dollars in 2016 which included the purchase of fighter jets in July 2016 (highest military expenditure in East Africa). Such spending despite the drastic fall in oil prices from $100 per barrel to $50, while the country was getting only $9 per barrel after discounts, payments to Sudan/creditors (oil companies) compounded the country problems.

• As well, the South Sudan government ignored spending on key like education, health. Between 2007 and 2011, only 5 percent of government expenditure was on public education according to World Bank while it was international donors funding 70% of the country’s health sector spending, see “Public expenditures in South Sudan: Are they delivering?” (2014) though South Sudan made $3.38 billion in oil revenue that year, netting $1.7 billion after debt payments.

• All these missteps, mismanagement can only result in one thing: a decline in the national well-being and a build-up of tensions among groups as everyone is not accommodated, which came to a head in 2012 when the government decided to shut down the oilfields, against all its global friends advice, its only source of income without any backup plan or strategy devised. The government was forced into austerity measures from since it has not been able to remove even now.

• Once the oil flow returned in early 2013, so did problems, political wrangling among various presidential hopefuls mixed with an entrenched incumbent boiled over in December 2013. Here, I must note as a policy specialist, the initial catalyst of the troubles was related to changing party policies, so as to reflect more fair processes and procedures.

• Once the blood began to flow in December 2013, it has only become harder for any chance of reconciliation - for each act of violence was reciprocated with a worse one, and on and on…tragedy turned to atrocity!

• The greatest loss of this war is its impact on the people: three million were displaced, 1.8 million within the country and 1.2 outside in five countries. The violence visited on the citizens has been recorded the worst in modern times. Internally too, another grave concern is famine, hunger; particularly given crops was below average this year according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in many areas due to war. The World Food Program warned earlier as many as 4.8 million people - about 40 percent of the country's population -- were starving and the situation may get worse.

• And to make matters worse, the government has increased surveillance and monitoring of NGO communications. With the recently passed 2016 NGO bill, organizations face more barriers and consequences if they do not play ball. One can be fined, imprisoned for 3 years or even deported, an organization de-registered. An example of the hostile environment for NGOs is a ban in 2014 on the use of the words: famine, disaster or catastrophe in South Sudan to describe national food deficiency status.

The Question Again???

Now, after laying the contextual groundwork for my readers my article’s title/question should have meaning and one must ask who is really responsible for the chaos in South Sudan?

As a convention, globally one would say the senior executive in charge is responsible yet President Kiir has deflected charges of nepotism, corruption, lack of vision, atrocities, mismanagement of state resources on his watch, saying it was some of his corrupt ministers. So where should one go to address this terrible situation in the new nation?

Only one place to go: UP –  to the mentor/guiding hand of United States of America, where else!

Senior US officials have been working on South Sudan matters since early 2000, some even longer. The nation has one of the longest and oldest connections with the young country besides Norway in the modern era.

As pointed out earlier in this piece The Bush administration developed strong ties with this administration, with President Bush having a personal bond with President Kiir. Then in 2009 the Clinton administration took over, severing that strong bond, and moving it lower down the foreign policy priority list.

In the Obama Administration the relationship became even more distanced, with its chief advisers being NSC head and former UN Ambassador and Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Susan Rice under Clinton; Secretary of State John Kerry, UN Ambassador Samantha Power, and the Special Envoy Donald Booth.

In Part 2, I explore who/what sank the US/South Sudan relationship to a level where Juba’s SPLA (national army) soldiers rampage purposely, without any UN/diplomatic corps response, a foreigner’s compound (the Terrace Hotel) gang-raping American aid workers in July 2016, and no response from US officials for weeks.

Abu Deng, ig

Nairobi, Kenya