Abu Deng's plea to UN Security Council on pending war in South Sudan

Abu Deng's plea to the UN Security Council on pending war in South Sudan

12 July 2016


Dear UN Security Council:

Greetings from Juba, where a potentially devastating war is beginning - what you decide today will impact millions of South Sudanese...their death may be imminent given recent events of last week, the past decades of unresolved anger and the frustration of thousands of citizens at what appears to them - a broken promise of UN support, on the side of the Government and that of FVP Dr. Machar.

My background, US Citizen married into an elite South Sudanese family, educated at masters level in policy and international affairs, with expert status on South Sudan since 2008, working for the main party SPLM on nation-building, strategy, development, security et al. My experience with the people here goes back to my marriage into the culture since 2002, so via marriage am part Dinka, Nuer and even Shilluk, the three major tribes of the 63 ethnic groups with friends across most of the various cultures. I speak from deep knowledge, authority and experience having been coming here since 2006, to Juba and Khartoum.

In recent conversations with various parties, Intellectuals, military and family I will sum up the situation:

If the UNSC fails today to finally show obstructors of the Peace process hard and appropriate  justice - the nation will descend a brutal war - its like not seen for ages. Reports reach me today both sides may be preparing to bring their youth Armies to Juba, which would be a bloodbath as you know.

Dr. Rice, if you recall a 2014 analysis on the pending war, I pointed out potential players and scenarios...yes, my predictions seem to have played out, but an annihilation scenario is truly possible now if the global community does nothing: one or both sides will be wiped out, period (full stop).

The accumulated hatred over pasts wrongs and wounds never resolved or healed have culminated into a true potential sunamme of violence, unrecorded in modern times.

SOLUTIONS

The recent statement of UN SecGen (Ban ki-Moon) recently urging for an arms embargo and targeted sanctions on key actors is beyond vital, it is essential - if the esteemed world body ignores its responsibility - as it has before: a Rwanda episode may be pending. Act now.

Yes, send in a 3rd party force, create a buffer zone for both troops - punish violators of R2P...snipers have been shooting into the PoC camps with various weapons, even bombs as the PoC1 site incident shows, with deaths of Rwanda and Chinese Peacekeepers - send a clear Chapter 7 message to violators...

To send a message to the hidden and dirty hands orchestrating a push toward civil war, I wish to submit the following names, many known in media, embassy accounts, UN and NGO reports as well:

1. President Salva Kiir - Commander in Chief and President of the Sovereign Republic of South Sudan. Ultimate responsibility must be put on him based Agravated State Responsibility principles

2. Dr Riek Machar - First Vice President, though the FVP has not been deemed innocent of various acts committed since 2013 Since his arrival in late April 2016 he has tried to implement the signed peace plan, but detractors in various camps including his own impeded his arrival, his ascendancy to FVP and his efforts to reconcile a broken nation, if there are evidence of his obstruction against Peace since his April 27th arrival I have not seen it. Though I believe he wanted a bigger force and weapon stock to protect hisself and people given his knowledge of his rivals.
3. What he has done, as many have in the Nuer and Equatoria region is to trust the international community to protect him, his forces and people upon arrival in a hostile place. But it is shown now not to be the case in his and others in the IO camp.


The J1 incident

Having sat with the FVP recently as he laid out what happened in the Presidential Palace, it is astonishing he survived. Imagine entering the most fortified place in a dictatorship, surrounded on throat side with truck mounted (Russ 12s/Zhat 32, Sudanese slang for a medium weapon that propels a 4 inch projectile). I met him before his departure to J1, the mood was sad, all believed it was a trap, but he said he had to take chance for Peace.

Inside J1, the meeting on pushing implementation forward was nearly over when the Head of the Presidential Guard Marial Chanuong came in and said, the man responsible for the death of the 5 government officers killed on Thursday (attack on the Bodyguards convoy to deliver food) WAS there in J1 Chanuong said, one of the FVPs bodyguards. The FVP said please let us not exacerbate this tense situation, so Marial Chanuong disappeared and some time later violence in J1 and outside erupted - and his 60 bodyguards had to fight their way through 100 to 200 highly armed elite soldiers to protect their leader - in the end they spared 7 of President Kiir bodyguards' lives with President Kiir at their mercy...Dr. Machar ordered no harm to Pres. Kiir. And so Dr. Machar decided to leave J1, called the UNMISS and JMEC, the UN Juba head was pinned down at the US Ambassador's house and the JMEC head had gone overseas, the second in command was unavailable.

So he left J1, with a one tank escort from the President's side to counter their security forces patrolling Jebel road - leaving the bodies of 37 of his guards, including TWO of Dr.Machar's sons.

Even after recounting this story to me, he still asks for Peace, but the FVP is unsure if President Kiir, despite his Ceasefire Order of 11 July, is serious??? Why?

The Al Jazeera Interview

An Al Jazeera aired an interview of Pres. Kiir and FVP said to be live from the FVP fortified residence in Jebel, afterwards the house was bombed, and gunfire erupted for some time, including a helicopter gunship appeared on scene . The question then and now:

Who control the Tanks, Helicopter gunships and artillery???? Find that answer and we have the culprit of South Sudan...

Other key members of Abu Deng's Targeted Sanctions List:


RSS Chief of Staff - Paul Malong, known by many, once nearly sanctioned but blocked by China, Russia and Angola I believe. He has recently been on an image cleanup in media claiming he is a philanthropist, God fearing man and kind guy...all I have learned about him since 2014 says he is the Architect of the December 2013 massacre, having recruited the 'white army' that murdered thousand (exact numbers unknown). And this recent event speaks of him. An Nairobi friend told me a few months back he is scared, aware of his crimes - so let him face justice if anyone is to do so...please verify my view via your intelligence but I strongly believe General Paul Malong is the greatest threat to the nation, and region, he is power hungry.

His SPLM maneuvers over the past years speaks to him thirst for power (example: he has been trying to make himself the SPLM head of 3 states, an illegal move by all accounts and signal of his plan to dominate his region and nation.

Minister of Defense, Kuel Juuk Manyang, no war can ho on without this SPLM "founder" being involved somehow.

Presidential Guard Head, Marial Chanuong - possible key back room player with General Malong. The J1 incident brings him to light from the dark.

Minister of Information Michael Makuei - his mean, callous, abrasive and openly disruptive manner and actions are documented by all, UN, NGOs and journalists. He kicked out UNMISS personnel from the country for questioning Makuei's approach to the process among dozens of incidents negatively impacting the peace process, documented!!! My number 2 after Paul Malong...

Minister of Mining Taban Deng Gai, believed to have been undermining the IO efforts for some time, at key times, like resigning his JMEC post at a critical point, and obstructing the peace process of late, not planning to accept his minister post and had to be convinced not to abandon the pending government at key moment.

Head of National Security Serivce, Mabuto Mamor, home to the 'unknown gunmen' terrorizing the nation...so he is automatically on list.

I am sorry this is not my best writing, but have been dodging bullets and National Security agents...

May this letter be received well, as intended whether I am alive or not!!!

Abu Deng